Limits to Growth

Is endless growth possible on a finite planet?

Author

Verneri Välimaa
July 04, 2024

The Predicament of Man

In its search for purpose working days and nights in earnest

Extending human life while dumping wood into the furnace,

Of a planet firing up

Too much excess nutrients in the seas

Pollution of the nature ruining biodiversity

All in the name of an economy

Imperative to grow on endlessly

Irregardless of the signs and dynamics of the system

18 percent of all the species on land facing mass extinction

By ignoring our limits, the connection grows more distant

6 of 9 planetary boundaries have been crossed

Perhaps its finally time to listen

Verneri

Limits to Growth

2022 marked the 50th anniversary of the landmark report “The Limits to Growth” authored by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William Behrens III.

Using system dynamics techniques pioneered by Professor Jay Forrester, the Limits to Growth was the first undertaking to model our planet’s interconnected systems and to make clear that if growth trends in population, industrialisation, resource use and pollution continued unchanged, we would reach and then overshoot the carrying capacity of the Earth at some point in the next 100 years.

The 2023 update to the Planetary boundaries by the Stockholm Resilience Center and 30 year update of the Limits to Growth report shows that this trend continues.

For the first time all nine boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity were assessed and it was found that 6 of the 9 boundaries have been transgressed.

Human activity affects the Earth’s climate and ecosystems more than ever which risks the stability of the entire planet.

Source: "Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023"

Origins of the Limits to Growth report

In April 1968, a group of thirty individuals from ten countries – scientists, educators, economists, humanists, industrialists, and national and international civil servants – gathered to discuss a subject of staggering scope – the present and future predicament of man. Out of this meeting grew The Club of Rome, an informal organisation with the purposes:

  • to foster understanding of the varied but interdependent components – economic, political, natural, and social – that make up the global system in which we all live

  • to bring that new understanding to the attention of policymakers and the public worldwide

  • and in this way to promote new policy initiatives and action.

Project of the Predicament of Mankind

Initiated by The Club of Rome, the Project of the Predicament of Mankind’s intent is to examine what they coined as the “world problematique”, described as a set of complex problems troubling men of all nations:

  • Poverty in the midst of plenty

  • Degradation of the environment

  • Loss of faith in institutions

  • Uncontrolled urban spread

  • Insecurity of employment

  • Alienation of youth

  • Rejection of traditional values

  • and inflation and other monetary and economic disruptions.

These divergent parts have 3 characteristics in common:

  1. They occur to some degree in all societies

  2. They contain technical, social, economic and political elements

  3. And most importantly, they interact.

The Limits to Growth report was part of Phase One of the Project of the Predicament of Mankind.

Main messages of the Limits to Growth report

Source: Meadows et al (1972), Earth4all

The above graph is based on a computer-simulated world model (World 3). With consumption continuing at current rates, the depletion of nonrenewable resources will lead to a collapse of industrial production, with growth stopping before 2100.

The main messages of the 1972 report still hold true today:

  1. The environmental impact of human society increased from 1900 to 1972 due to population growth and higher resource consumption and pollution per person per year.

  2. Our planet has physical limits, and humanity cannot sustainably use more resources and generate more emissions than nature can supply. Technology alone cannot solve this problem and would only delay reaching the planet's carrying capacity.

  3. It is likely that the human ecological footprint will exceed the planet's carrying capacity due to delays in global decision-making, leading to unsustainable conditions.

  4. Once in unsustainable territory, humanity must return to sustainability either through "managed decline" or "collapse" due to natural or market forces.

  5. The challenge of overshoot from decision delays is real but solvable with proactive policy to prevent exceeding planetary limits.

  6. The authors advocated for starting in 1975 to achieve a smooth transition to a sustainable world, avoiding overshoot and contraction phases.

Dive Deeper

Below I will list resources and communities to explore Limits to Growth further:

Orgs:

  • The Club of Rome Impact Hubs

    • Emerging New Civilisations

    • Planetary Emergency

    • Reframing Economics

    • Rethinking Finance

    • Youth Leadership and Intergenerational Dialogues

Reading

Listening

People

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Thank you for being here!

Verneri

Sources used for this Issue: